| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Idaho | 13-10 | 1425.6 | +0.0 | 1425.6 | 39.5% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | San Diego State | 36-13 | 1425.6 | +15.8 | 1441.4 | 76.1% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | North Texas | 10-59 | 1441.4 | -44.5 | 1396.9 | 60.2% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Washington | 24-59 | 1396.9 | -15.2 | 1381.7 | 13.7% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Colorado State | 20-3 | 1381.7 | +47.4 | 1429.1 | 52.1% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Ole Miss | 21-24 | 1429.1 | -3.5 | 1425.6 | 5.6% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Virginia | 20-22 | 1425.6 | -19.7 | 1405.9 | 29.3% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Toledo | 28-7 | 1405.9 | +32.1 | 1438.0 | 54.6% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Oregon State | 7-10 | 1438.0 | -57.9 | 1380.1 | 74.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Louisiana Tech | 28-3 | 1380.1 | +23.6 | 1403.7 | 65.4% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | James Madison | 20-24 | 1403.7 | -9.4 | 1394.3 | 14.6% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Oregon State | 32-8 | 1394.3 | +15.9 | 1410.2 | 76.0% |
| 19 | Dec 22 2025 | W | Utah State | 34-21 | 1410.2 | +38.4 | 1448.6 | 54.8% |